The president says the United States is ready to resume strikes if needed while talks continue; Iran calls its own proposal the most reasonable offer, and California drivers are paying about $1 a gallon more than a year ago.
President Trump said Monday that “Iran militarily is effectively over,” signaling that he considers the war largely finished, after a closed-door meeting at the White House with Qatar’s prime minister, the leading mediator between Washington and Tehran. No agreement was announced, and Mr. Trump said the United States would keep its naval blockade of Iranian ports in place while talks continue.
“We’re just keeping it the status quo, and we’re doing that really at the behest of countries that are their neighbours,” Mr. Trump said at an unscheduled briefing, Al Jazeera reported. “Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and others would prefer the status quo, that we remain as is.”
The administration’s aims
The administration has framed the conflict, which it calls Operation Epic Fury, around stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and keeping Gulf shipping open. In the War Powers report he sent Congress on March 2, Mr. Trump wrote that Iran “continues to seek the means to possess and employ nuclear weapons,” and that the Feb. 28 strikes were carried out to protect U.S. forces and the homeland, to ensure “the free flow of maritime commerce through the Strait of Hormuz,” and “in collective self-defense of our regional allies, including Israel.” He cited his constitutional authority as commander in chief.
On Monday he described the military campaign as having achieved much of that. “Israel and the entire Middle East are protected from Iranian danger and threats, and we’re seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict,” he said. “Taking military action doesn’t seem to be a very necessary thing, but we’re locked and loaded, ready to go for any reason that changes.”
The day before, Mr. Trump told CNN that as long as negotiations progressed toward a “strong agreement,” it was “highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary” to resume strikes, Reuters reported. He also said the United States had identified infrastructure targets, including 38 bridges, it would strike if fighting resumed.
Two proposals, far apart
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who is both Qatar’s prime minister and foreign minister, met Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance after a visit to Tehran last week. Afterward he wrote that the sides had discussed “ways to progress the US-Iran talks,” adding, “Grateful for the positive discussions on reaching a deal and bringing peace to the region.”
Iran’s proposal, as described by Reuters, would end the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, lift some sanctions and halt bombing in exchange for Iran ending its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with talks on its nuclear program and other sanctions to follow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called Tehran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.” Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, defended the plan Monday as the most reasonable offer on the table.
Other Iranian officials dismissed Mr. Trump’s remarks. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, wrote on social media, “STOP manufacturing FAKE NEWS about imaginary talks.” President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran remained open to negotiations but would not be coerced. “We will not surrender to force and bullying,” he said, according to Iranian media.
Regional officials are bracing for a long stalemate. Anwar Gargash, a senior United Arab Emirates official, said a comprehensive settlement appeared difficult. “We should … prepare for a long period of uncertainty in which neither a decisive resolution nor stable regional order can be taken for granted,” he said, according to Reuters.
The fighting has not fully stopped. Iranian state media reported U.S. strikes on Qeshm Island overnight Sunday, which the United States did not comment on, and attacks on tankers in the Gulf have continued at the highest rate since the war began, according to maritime agency figures cited by Reuters.
The State Department and Qatar’s Government Communications Office did not respond to questions from The Inquirer about the meeting. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington research group, also did not respond.
What it means at the pump
For California, the clearest measure of the war is the price of fuel. Before the conflict, about 17 percent of the state’s crude oil, or 29 percent of its internationally imported crude, passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the California Energy Commission. The commission estimates that each $10-a-barrel rise in crude adds roughly 24 cents a gallon at the pump, and says California’s increase has tracked the national trend.
Prices have eased in recent weeks. The statewide average for regular gasoline was $5.74 a gallon early Tuesday, according to AAA, down 59 cents from a month ago but $1.03 higher than a year ago. Diesel, which moves the state’s freight and farm goods, averaged $8.14, nearly $3 above last year. The commission says global diesel supplies are expected to remain tight “well into next year.”
A durable reopening of the strait would remove the geopolitical risk premium that the Energy Commission says is built into crude prices. Mr. Trump’s comments Monday suggest that the blockade, and the uncertainty that comes with it, will continue until a deal is reached. The Inquirer reported Nov. 2 on Qatar’s expanded role as mediator.
Nasrin Haidari covers foreign affairs and geopolitics, including diplomacy, trade disputes and conflicts, and their ties to California and the Pacific. More from Nasrin Haidari
