President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro enter Sunday’s second round within the margin of error, with Brazilians in Northern California voting at a polling site in San Francisco’s Financial District and U.S. tariffs, critical minerals and security cooperation riding on the outcome.
Brazilians choose a president on Sunday in a runoff that the country’s major pollsters say is effectively tied. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, is seeking a fourth term against Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who finished first in the Oct. 4 opening round.
In that first round, Mr. Bolsonaro won 47.03 percent of valid votes, about 56.1 million, to Mr. Lula’s 45.16 percent, about 53.9 million, according to final results reported by O Globo. The eliminated candidates together drew less than 8 percent, so the runoff turns largely on turnout and on a small pool of persuadable voters.
The final polls
Every major survey released in the campaign’s last days put the race within its margin of error. Datafolha, which interviewed 4,050 voters in person on Oct. 23 and 24, and Quaest, which surveyed 3,702, each found Mr. Bolsonaro at 51 percent of valid votes and Mr. Lula at 49 percent, with a margin of error of two points, O Globo reported. The newspaper said that was the narrowest pre-runoff gap in its comparison of final surveys going back two decades.
PoderData also found 51 percent to 49 percent. A CNT/MDA survey of 2,032 voters conducted Oct. 21 to 23 found 50.7 percent to 49.3 percent, and AtlasIntel, polling for Bloomberg, found 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent, according to compilations by O Globo and CNN Brasil. Each poll gives Mr. Bolsonaro a nominal edge; none gives either man a lead outside the margin.
Quaest also found Mr. Lula’s job approval at 48 percent, against 45 percent disapproval.
Voting in San Francisco
Brazilian citizens registered abroad vote only for president, and those registered with the Consulate General in San Francisco, whose jurisdiction covers Northern California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska, vote in person on Sunday from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Pacific time. The consulate says the polling place is the Banking Hall of the Merchants Exchange Building at 465 California Street, with the entrance at 46 Leidesdorff Street, a short walk from the Montgomery Street BART station. Voters need a Brazilian photo ID or the e-Título app with a photo, and phones are not allowed in the booth.
Because California is four hours behind Brasília, its polls close at 9 p.m. Brasília time, among the last anywhere Brazilians vote. Brazil’s electoral court begins releasing results at 5 p.m. Brasília time, or 1 p.m. in California, while Bay Area polls are still open, according to TV Connect USA, which cited the court’s rules.
The diaspora vote here leans differently from the community nationwide. In the first round, voters in the San Francisco consulate’s jurisdiction gave Mr. Lula 57.5 percent and Mr. Bolsonaro 35 percent, while across the United States Mr. Bolsonaro won 61.1 percent to Mr. Lula’s 31.7 percent, according to electoral court figures compiled by TV Connect USA. Turnout among the roughly 265,000 Brazilians registered in the United States was low: about 75,400 voted, an abstention rate above 71 percent.
What Washington wants
The election comes three months after the Trump administration imposed a 25 percent tariff on most Brazilian goods. In a July 15 announcement, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said a Section 301 investigation had found Brazilian policies unreasonable and burdensome to U.S. commerce, citing secret court orders to American social media companies, the treatment of U.S. firms under Brazil’s Pix payment system, preferential tariffs for other partners, intellectual property enforcement, illegal deforestation and barriers to U.S. ethanol, whose exports to Brazil the agency said fell 87 percent from 2018 to 2025. Beef, orange juice, aircraft and parts, and energy products were exempted.
“Safeguarding American economic interests against unfair trade practices is the bedrock of President Trump’s America First policies,” Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said at the time, adding that “we remain open to continuing negotiations with Brazil.”
President Trump has openly supported Mr. Bolsonaro’s candidacy, praised his first-round showing and received him and his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro at the White House during the campaign, Valor International reported. The paper said the administration is expected to renew pressure on access to critical minerals, trade concessions and regional security cooperation once the runoff is decided, though analysts it interviewed said Washington may struggle to secure its demands regardless of who wins, given China’s deep role in Brazil’s economy.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council sketched two paths. James Story, a former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, wrote that a Bolsonaro government would likely move quickly to seek a reciprocal trade agreement and join the U.S.-led Shield of the Americas security initiative, which Mr. Bolsonaro has said he would do. A Lula government, the council’s analysts wrote, would likely keep emphasizing Brazil’s sovereignty and diversified trade while continuing tariff talks with Washington. Mr. Story called critical minerals “perhaps the biggest prize,” noting estimates that Brazil holds the world’s second-largest rare earth reserves and that Mr. Lula declined a U.S. minerals partnership in February.
For California, the stakes run through technology supply chains as much as diplomacy: rare earths feed the magnets and electronics that Bay Area companies design.
Reaching out
The Inquirer contacted the Consulate General of Brazil in San Francisco, Brazil’s regional electoral court for voters abroad, the Center for Latin American Studies at UC Berkeley and the Washington Office on Latin America for comment on Saturday. None responded by publication time.
Nasrin Haidari covers foreign affairs and geopolitics, including diplomacy, trade disputes and conflicts, and their ties to California and the Pacific. More from Nasrin Haidari
